Achieving Food and Nutrition Security for Indonesia’s Free Nutritious Meal Program:A Provincial-Level Gap Analysis and Development Strategy
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36574/jpp.v10i1.814Keywords:
dynamic system, Free Meals Program (MBG), regional strategiesAbstract
This study aims to analyze the sufficient food needs for the national Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program in all provinces in Indonesia. The method employed is a quantitative approach, by calculating the production results of carbohydrate food in the form of rice in Indonesia. The dynamic system model uses three scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Economic Growth, and Sustainable Development to analyze the most effective scenario in meeting the society's carbohydrate needs. The sustainable development scenario is the optimal scenario to effectively achieve the objectives of the National Free Nutrious Meals program with the highest amount of food reserves. Based on these results, this situation must be addressed with several strategies, including both spatial economic and socio-statistical approaches. Optimization to meet food needs can be carried out by optimizing food resources in each province in the form of 1) fulfilling carbohydrate deficits through food diversification and economic cooperation, and 2) optimizing agricultural development through extensification and intensification in food production.
Downloads
References
Albin, S. (1997). Building a system dynamics model: Part 1: Conceptualization. MIT System Dynamics in Education Project. https://web.mit.edu/system/sd-intro/D-4527-1.pdf
Asosiasi Sistem Dinamik Indonesia. (n.d.). Apa itu sistem dinamik? Asosiasi Sistem Dinamik Indonesia. https://asdi.or.id/apa-itu-sistem-dinamik/
Beltran-Pena, A., Bocco, G., & Altieri, M. A. (2020). Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (9), Article 095004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9388
Badan Pangan Nasional. (2025). Optimis Program MBG Jadi Akselerator Ekosistem Pangan Nasional, NFA Siap Dukung Aspek Proyeksi Ketersediaan dan Keamanan Pangan. Badan Pangan Nasional. https://badanpangan.go.id/blog/post/optimis-program-mbg-jadi-akselerator-ekosistem-pangan-nasional-nfa-siap-dukung-aspek-proyeksi-ketersediaan-dan-keamanan-pangan
Badan Pangan Nasional. (2024). Dukung program makan bergizi gratis, Badan Pangan Nasional perkuat pengawasan keamanan pangan segar. Badan Pangan Nasional. https//badanpangan.go.id/blog/post/dukung-program-makan-bergizi-gratis-badan-pangan-nasional-perkuat-pengawasan-keamanan-pangan-segar
Baihaqi, M. a.S. (2025). Dampak Produksi Beras, Indeks Kemahalan Konstruksi, dan Diversifikasi Pangan Terhadap Prevalensi Ketidakcukupan Pangan di Kawasan Indonesia Timur. Syntax Literate Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia, 10(1), 959-970. https://doi.org/10.36418/syntax-literate.v10i1.23752
Clapp, J. (2017). Food Self-sufficiency: Making sense of it, and when it makes sense. Food Policy, 66, 88-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.12.001
Chrisendo, D., Piipponen, J., Heino, M., & Kummu, M. (2023). Socioeconomic factors of global food loss. Agriculture & food security, 12(23). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-02300426-4
Damayanti, A. (2025). BPS ungkat data impor komoditas pangan, capai 13.629 ton. Detiksumut. Retrivied from https://www.detik.com
Development Initiatives. (2024). Nutrition profile: Indonesia. Global Nutrition Report. https://globalnutritionreport.org/resources/nutrition-profiles/?country-search=indonesia
Fatimah, S., Rasyid, A., Anirwan, A., Qamal, Q., & Arwakon, H.O. (2024). Kebijakan Makan Bergizi Gratis di Indonesia Timur:Tantangan, Implementasi, dan Solusi untuk Ketahanan Pangan. Journal of Governance and Policy Innovation, 4(1), 14-21. https://doi.org/10.51577/jgpi.v4i1.641
Febryanti, I., Indiati, I., Pane, M. A., & Astuti, P. (2025). Implementasi Kebijakan makan bergizi gratis (MBG) (studi kasus pada SDN 3 Kepanjen Kabupaten Malang). Dialogue: Jurnal Ilmu Administrasi Publik, 7(1), 67-79. https://doi.org/10.14710/dialogue.v7i1.26628
Griffith, D. A. (2019). Spatial autocorrelation. In Elsevier eBooks (pp.355-366). https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-08-102295-5.10596-7
Huda, A. C., Az-Zahra, A., Yasmin, F. P., Ningrum, I. W. K., Putra W. S., & Budiasih, B,. (2023). Analisis Regresi Spasial Presentase Kemiskinan di Kawasan Timur Indonesia Tahun 2022. Seminar Nasional Official Statitistics, 2023(1), 747-756. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffststv2023i1.1792
Indonesia.co.id (2024). Penerima manfaat MBG mendekati 20 juta orang. https://indonesia.go.id/kategori/sosial-budaya/9842/penerima-manfaat-mbg-mendekati-20-juta-oeang?lang=1
Jiang Z, Raghavan SV, Hur J, Sun Y, Liong S-Y, Nguyen VQ, van Pham Dang T. (2019). Future changes in rice yields over the mekong river delta due to climate change—alarming or alerting? Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(1–2):545–55.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2617-z
Kiftiyah, A., Palestina, F. A., Abshar, F.U., &Rofifah, K. (2025). Program Makan Bergisi Gratis (MBG) dalam Perspektif Keadilan Sosial dan Dinamika Sosial-Politik. Pancasila Jurnal Keindonesiaan, 5(1), 101-112. https://doi.org/10.52738/pjk.v5i1.726
Kutscherauer, A., CSc., Fachinelli, H., Ph. D., Hucka, M., CSc., Skokan, K., Ph. D., Suchacek, J., Ph. D., Tomanek, P., CSc., & Tuleja, P., Ph. D. (2010). Regional disparities in regional development of the Czech Republic – their occurrence, identification and elimination. VSB-Technical University of Ostrava.
Manikmas, M. O. A. (2016). Merauke Integrated Rice Estate (Mire): Kebangkitan Ketahanan dan Kemandirian Pangan dari Ufuk Timur Indonesia. Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian, 8(4), 323-338. https://doi.org/10.21082/akp.v8n4.2010.323-338
Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas. (2024). Compilation of Long-Term National Development Plan (RPJPN) 2025-2045: Strengthening sustainable development towards Golden Indonesia 2045. Ministry of National Development Planning/National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) of the Republic of Indonesia. https://www.bappenas.go.id/id/berita-dan-siaran-pers/indonesia-emas-2045
Ministry of State Secretariat of the Republic Indonesia. (2024). Makan bergizi gratis dan SDM unggul. Sekretariat Negara. Retrieved from https://setneg.go.id/baca/index/makan_bergizi_gratis_dan_sdm_unggul
Novita, D., Suharno, S., Nurmalina, R., & Nuryantoro, N. (2024). The effect of rice price on the Indonesian inflation in a new institutional economic perspective. Agrisocionomics: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, 8(2), 621–636. https://doi.org/10.14710/agrisocionomics.v8i2.24146
Reardon, T., & Timmer, C. P. (2012). The quiet revolution in staple food value chains: Enter the dragon, the elephant, and the tiger. Asian Development Bank; International Food Policy Research Institute
Somantri, A.S., & Thahir, R. (2016). Analisis sistem dinamik ketersediaan beras di Merauke dalam rangka menuju lumbung padi bagi kawasan timur Indonesia. Buletin Teknologi Pasca Panen. https://repository.pertanian.go.id/handle/123456789/3459
Spatial autocorrelation. (1988). Choice Reviews Online, 26(01), 26–0446a. https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.26-0446a
Suprapto, F. A., Praditya, E., Dewi, R. M., & Adiyoso, W. (2025). A policy implementation review of the free nutritious meal (MBG) program. The Journal of Indonesia Sustainable Development Planning, 6(2), 297–312. https://doi.org/10.46456/jisdep.v6i2.798
Supriadi, H. (2016). Strategi Kebijakan Pembangunan Pertanian di Papua Barat. Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian, 6(4), 352–377. https://doi.org/10.21082/akp.v6n4.2008.352-377
United Nations. (n.d.). The 17 goals. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Sustainable Development. https://sdgs.un.org/goals
Wang L, Wei Y, Li B, Zheng S, Ullah S, Sohail S. (2024). Renewable energy consumption and its impacts on agriculturalization under climate neutrality targets. Energy and Environment. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X241230622
Waluyo, S. D. (2025). Kebijakan makanan bergizi gratis: Tinjauan ekonomi politik dalam kesejahteraan dan ketahanan pangan. Dinamika: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Administrasi Negara, 12(1), April 2025.
Welthungerhilfe & Concern Worldwide. (2023). Indonesia - Global Hunger Index. Global Hunger Index. https://www.globalhungerindex.org/indonesia.html
Whelan, S., & Msefer, K. (1996). Economic supply & demand. MIT System Dynamics in Education Project. https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/15-988-system-dynamics-self-study-fall-1998-spring-1999/c0478ac5a8d6aa657cd82812fb91ce75_economics.pdf
Zulham, A., Sitorus, S. R. P., & Eriyatno. (2019). Supply chain strategy for convergence of regional economic growth East Coast North Sumatera, Indonesia. International Journal of Supply Chain Management, 8(5), 325–335.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Rohmah Amredika, Andini Lestari

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
This open-access article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Copyright © The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning











